Consider these hypothetical scenarios for the year 2033:
“Blackout Friday” flashes across cell phone screens as a reminder that all discretionary energy use is to be suspended one day a week. This nationwide blackout is one of several steps required in the wake of devastating hurricanes that struck Miami, rendering the region uninhabitable for the foreseeable future.
In 2033, “abundance” has replaced “chronic shortage” as a descriptor of the engineering community’s workforce relative to its needs. A new purpose-driven, diverse cohort of workers from a range of engineering backgrounds—combined with new means of leveraging emerging technologies—drove this surprising outcome over the last decade.
Polarization has led to an ineffective federal government and the emergence of new political coalitions across the U.S. This shift culminated in the 2032 election of a rare, unifying president and new members of Congress drawn from coalition ranks. This new alignment in government sets the stage for significant action to address long-standing societal challenges.
These three scenarios capture the opening plot lines of narratives of the future created and explored by attendees at the 2023 Engineering Change Lab – USA Engineering Ideas Institute, which convened in late September at the Colorado Chautauqua in Boulder.
Discussions at the three-day institute followed a process design combining traditional scenario-planning elements with concepts explored in Jane McGonigal’s book, “Imaginable.” These concepts included examining signals of change: concrete examples of seismic change underway, including climate change, technology and demographics; future forces: significant trends or phenomena likely to have a disruptive, transformative impact, including economic disparities, migration, shifts in work priorities and political polarization; and critical uncertainties: events whose outcomes are uncertain, such as political landscapes, future workforces and innovation.
After generating the three scenarios, participants explored what the engineering community could or should do to elevate its contributions on behalf of society.
Actions that were perceived as essential included:
- Communicating more effectively with the public and developing skills for collaboration outside engineering.
- Engaging early in public policy.
- Combating misinformation and disinformation.
- Incorporating macro-ethics into engineering practice.
- a diverse workforce through principles of equity and inclusion and elevating leaders that reflect the population.
- Other actions that offer significant benefits in one or more scenarios included:
- Proactively changing the business model of consulting engineers.
- Prioritizing projects aligned with the needs of the future.
- Achieving demonstrative leadership improvements.
The 2023 Engineering Ideas Institute strengthened participants’ understanding of how scenario planning can be a vehicle for developing such capacity. The experience left participants feeling more hopeful about the present and future while believing they have agency to shape the unfolding future in desirable ways.
Teams formed at the institute will continue refining these scenarios. Visit ecl-usa.org to follow our progress and learn more.
