November Construction Retreats 11% Nationwide
At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $524.8 billion, new construction starts in November fell 11% from the previous month, according to McGraw Hill Construction, a division of McGraw Hill Financial.
The downturn followed heightened activity in October, which showed the strongest pace for construction starts so far during 2013. Both nonresidential building and nonbuilding construction pulled back from their elevated October amounts. At the same time, residential building showed modest growth in November, continuing the steady upward trend that’s been present during most of 2013.
For the first 11 months of 2013, total construction starts on an unadjusted basis came in at $475.3 billion, up 6% from the same period a year ago. If the volatile electric utility category is excluded from the year-to-date statistics, total construction starts for the first 11 months of 2013 would be up 14%.
November’s data produced a reading of 111 for the Dodge Index (2000=100), compared to 125 in October and 118 in September. For the first eight months of 2013 the Dodge Index had averaged 105, as it hovered within the fairly narrow range of 100 to 108. While November showed a decline from the prior two months, the level of activity was still above what had been reported earlier in the year.
“The monthly construction start statistics will often show an up-and-down pattern, given the amount of large projects that are included in any given month,” stated Robert A. Murray, chief economist for McGraw Hill Construction. “Although November witnessed a decline from the heightened activity in September and October, the construction start statistics when viewed in the context of 2013 as a whole are still trending upward.
“Housing during 2013 has strengthened on a consistent basis. Nonresidential building is gaining momentum, aided by improving activity for commercial building from low levels, while the institutional building sector stabilizes after a lengthy decline. Nonbuilding construction is weakening due to a sharply reduced amount of new electric utility starts, but its public works component has shown surprising resilience this year,” Murray said.
“For 2014, the upward trend for total construction starts is expected to continue. One plus for construction and the economy going forward is the recent budget pact approved by the U.S. Congress, since it removes the uncertainty that would have come with the threat of another government shutdown in early 2014,” Murray added.
Nonresidential Building
Nonresidential building in November dropped 17% to $179.3 billion (annual rate), following its elevated activity in October. The manufacturing plant category plunged 86%, after being lifted in October by the start of three massive projects each valued in excess of $1 billion. In contrast, the largest manufacturing-related projects reported as November starts were a $94-million biotechnology plant in North Carolina and a $75-million pipe and tube plant in Texas.
Excluding the manufacturing category, nonresidential building in November would have been up 16%, supported by the month’s 31% jump for the commercial building group. Hotel construction in November surged 212%, boosted by $476 million for the hotel portion of the $700-million 67-story Korean Air Hotel in Los Angeles. Also reported as a November start was $191 million for the hotel portion of a $300-million hotel resort and casino in Durant, Okla.
Office construction in November climbed 26%, maintaining the growing momentum that’s been present during the second half of 2013. Large office projects reported as November starts were the $336-million Transbay office tower in San Francisco, the $265-million State Farm office complex in Tempe, Ariz., and $160 million for the office portion of the $700-million Korean Air Hotel project in Los Angeles.
Warehouse construction was particularly strong in November, advancing 82% with the help of such projects as a $90 million distribution facility in Union, Ohio, and an $85-million Amazon distribution center in Kenosha, Wis. Store construction was the one commercial category to decline in November, dropping 23% with the largest project being a $45-million outlet mall in Tejon Ranch, Calif.
The institutional building group in November slipped 3%. Health care facilities fell 41%, sliding back for the second month in a row after a particularly strong amount in September. The largest health care facility projects reported as November starts were a $136-million hospital in Chicago and a $90-million hospital expansion in Long Island City, N.Y. The educational building category in November decreased 8% from its improved pace in October, with the largest education-related projects being a $125-million museum expansion in Potomac, Md., and a $100-million research facility in Maywood, Ill.
The smaller institutional categories showed strong percentage gains in November after a generally weak October. Amusement-related construction advanced 84%, led by the start of the $763-million Vikings Multipurpose Stadium in Minneapolis, as well as $109 million for the casino portion of the $300-million hotel resort and casino in Durant, Okla.
Transportation terminal construction in November rose 13%, supported by $125 million for the redevelopment of the George Washington Bridge Bus Station in New York City. The public buildings and religious categories in November showed large percentage gains from very low October levels, rising 21% and 33% respectively.
During the first 11 months of 2013, nonresidential building climbed 8% relative to the same period a year ago. The commercial categories as a whole were up 16%, featuring these across-the-board gains—warehouses, up 32%; hotels, up 24%; office buildings, up 23%; and stores, up 1%. The 2013 increase for stores was restrained by the comparison to 2012 that included the $400-million renovation to Macy’s flagship department store in New York City. The manufacturing building category year-to-date climbed 49%, helped especially by the three large manufacturing projects reported as October starts.
The institutional building group year-to-date was down 2%, with the two largest institutional categories performing as follows—educational buildings, unchanged from the previous year; and health care facilities, down 4%. The smaller institutional categories showed this year-to-date pattern—amusement-related projects, up 24%; transportation terminals, up 5%; religious buildings, down 8%; and public buildings, down 23%.
Nonbuilding Construction
Nonbuilding construction, at $127.1 billion (annual rate), dropped 21% in November. The public works portion of nonbuilding construction fell 23%, with the largest decline registered by bridge construction, down 73%. The bridge category in October had been boosted by $2.8 billion for the start of structural work on the Tappan Zee Bridge replacement project across the Hudson River in the Tarrytown, N.Y., area. In November, the largest bridge project reported as a construction start was a $125-million bridge reconstruction in Fall River, Mass.
Additional public works categories with November declines were highway construction, down 3%; and sewers, down 32%. On the plus side, both river/harbor development and water supply construction showed improvement from a lackluster October, advancing 47% and 3% respectively.
The miscellaneous public works category, which includes such diverse project types as pipelines and mass transit, grew 8% in November with the help of the $300-million Keystone Pipeline Gulf Coast Expansion in Texas. Electric utility construction in November edged up 1%, staying basically unchanged from its sharply reduced amount in October. The largest electric utility project reported as a November start was a $400-million wind farm in the state of Washington.
For the January-November period of 2013, nonbuilding construction was down 15% from a year ago. After reaching a record high in current dollar terms back in 2012, the volume of new electric utility starts has fallen sharply in 2013, plunging 59% year-to-date. Running counter has been the public works sector, posting year-to-date growth at 5%. The largest increase was registered by bridge construction, up 41%, reflecting the start of several very large bridge projects over the course of 2013.
The substantial year-to-date gain for bridge construction was accompanied by a 9% increase for highway construction. For environmental public works, year-to-date growth was reported for river/harbor development, up 25%; and water supply construction, up 10%; while sewer construction was unchanged from its 2012 amount. The miscellaneous public works category dropped 20% year-to-date, as the dollar amount of pipeline projects retreated from the strong pace witnessed during 2012.
Residential Building
Residential building in November improved 1% to $218.5 billion (annual rate). The upward push came from the multifamily side of the housing market, which climbed 18%. Large multifamily projects reported as November starts included a $450-million multifamily tower and the $126-million condominium portion of a $300-million condo hotel, both located in New York City.
Also reaching groundbreaking in November were a $114-million multifamily tower in San Francisco, a $100-million apartment complex in Huntington Station, N.Y., and a $100-million multifamily tower in Chicago. Single-family housing in November receded 3%, pulling back after a 4% gain in October. The November pace for single-family housing was still 12% above what was reported at the outset of 2013.
During the first 11 months of 2013, residential building advanced 25% compared to a year ago. Single-family housing will come close to matching last year’s strong percentage gain (up 29%), reporting a 27% increase in this year’s January-November period.
By major region, single-family housing showed this year-to-date performance—the South Atlantic, up 35%; the Midwest, up 29%; the West and Northeast, each up 26%; and the South Central, up 19%.
Multifamily housing year-to-date climbed 21%, a strong rate of increase although revealing some deceleration from the sharp rise (up 37%) reported for the full year 2012. By major region, multifamily housing showed this year-to-date performance—the Northeast, up 43%; the Midwest, up 26%; the South Atlantic, up 22%; the West, up 11%; and the South Central, down 6%. The top five metropolitan areas in terms of the dollar amount of multifamily starts year-to-date were: New York City, up 47%; Boston, up 87%; Washington, D.C., up 9%; Miami, up 5%; and Los Angeles, down 24%.
The 6% increase for total construction starts at the national level during the first 11 months of 2013 was supported by gains in three of the five major regions. Leading the way was the Northeast, up 21%; followed by the Midwest, up 11%; and the West, up 9%. Total construction starts in the South Central region were unchanged year-to-date, while the South Atlantic showed a 3% decline.
The South Atlantic shortfall reflected the comparison to the first 11 months of 2012 that included the start of two massive nuclear facilities. If electric utilities are removed from the year-to-date construction statistics in the South Atlantic, then total construction for that region in 2013 would be up 21%.