...state budgets and legislative priorities, she says. Most states have supported road building at traditional levels and some even increased funding, but nearly one-third of the states cut back in 2009 and more cuts are expected in 2010, she says.
Price declines “had a very big impact” on making construction dollars go further in 2009, Black says, and ARTBA expects that trend to continue in 2010. Highway contractors compete for materials with the overall construction market, and with many of those other sectors still in decline or flat, the chance to make the most of highway dollars will continue into 2010, ARTBA says.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was crucial to transportation projects in 2009 and will continue to play a significant role in 2010, especially for longer-term projects, Black says. But ARRA stimulus funding is expected to taper off in 2011. “That just means the federal highway reauthorization will be that much more important,” she says. With highway reauthorization still up in the air and net 2010 federal funding expected to remain near current levels, “the next big story is what is going to happen for 2011,” she says.
Assuming flat federal funding and the tailing off of ARRA funds in 2011, ARTBA predicts “a bit of a cliff” in 2011. Without a ramp-up in federal funding, ARTBA sees a 2% to 4% decline in construction put-in-place for roads and bridges. Delays in the federal reauthorization also give uncertainty to state planners’ calculations and increase the likelihood of a decline in 2011 construction, ARTBA says.
The outlook for federal spending is not only critical for highway markets but for several other construction sectors as well. As of early November, big question marks hung over a number of federal construction-budget items. At ENR press time, Congress had passed only five of the 12 appropriations bills for the 2010 federal fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1. Those passed included bills covering energy and water programs and the Interior Dept. and Environmental Protection Agency.
Actual | Estimate | Forecast | Percent | Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 08-09 | 09-10 |
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION | 654.3 | 545.8 | 530.0 | -16.6 | -2.9 |
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDING | 230.6 | 163.6 | 179.2 | -29.1 | +9.5 |
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING | 176.1 | 143.4 | 111.3 | -18.5 | -22.4 |
Industrial | 37.5 | 40.4 | 29.1 | +7.8 | -28.1 |
Office | 35.1 | 23.5 | 16.7 | -33.0 | -29.1 |
Hotels, Motels | 21.6 | 16.4 | 10.8 | -24.0 | -34.6 |
Hospitals, Institutions | 17.6 | 19.1 | 18.9 | +8.5 | -1.3 |
Religious and Miscellaneous | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | -4.7 | -6.7 |
Educational | 10.7 | 8.3 | 7.3 | -22.7 | -12.2 |
Commercial | 42.8 | 26.7 | 20.9 | -37.4 | -21.9 |
PUBLIC UTILITY | 58.5 | 59.8 | 54.5 | +2.2 | -8.9 |
PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION | 184.3 | 175.3 | 181.7 | -4.9 | +3.6 |
Buildings | 76.3 | 70.3 | 71.8 | -7.8 | +2.1 |
Highways and Streets | 46.2 | 45.2 | 50.2 | -2.0 | +11.0 |
Conservation | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | +8.6 | +4.7 |
Sewer Systems | 16.1 | 15.7 | 15.4 | -2.6 | -1.8 |
Water Supply | 9.8 | 8.7 | 8.9 | -10.4 | +1.7 |
Military/Miscellaneous | 24.9 | 23.5 | 23.0 | -5.6 | -2.5 |
Source: Portland Cement Association skokie, Ill. |
The big winner so far is EPA water infrastructure, which received nearly $5 billion, a 67% hike over 2009, excluding emergency ARRA funds. Within that total, aid to Clean Water State Revolving Funds more than tripled, to $2.1 billion, and drinking-water SRFs received a 67% increase, to $1.4 billion.
Steve Hall, American Council of Engineering Companies’ vice president for government affairs, says the EPA water figures are “a terrific accomplishment.” He says that action also emphasizes the need to pass a new EPA water authorization bill that “hopefully locks [strong funding] in for the coming years.”
The energy-water measure gave the Army Corps of Engineers’ civil-works program $5.4 billion, an increase of less than 1% from the 2009 level. That 2010 total includes $2 billion for the Corps construction account, a 5% cut from 2009.The Dept. of Energy’s defense environmental cleanup program also was trimmed by about 1%, to $5.6 billion.
Programs funded by the seven uncompleted congressional spending bills generally are operating at 2009 levels under a stopgap continuing resolution, which runs through Dec. 18. The Senate Appropriations Committee hopes to make progress on more of those not-yet-finished 2010 bills by the end of December. “We are trying to get as many individual bills done as we can,” says a committee spokesman. The Transportation, Housing, Defense, Commerce, Justice and State Dept. bills all are in House-Senate conference committees.