6. Internal certifications in corporations and federal agencies will eclipse the project management professional (PMP) credential. With roughly 470,000 project management professional credentials having been awarded worldwide thus far, the PMP remains the most popular and ubiquitous credential on the planet. However, it is not the prominent credential everywhere.

In the U.S. government as well as Fortune 500 corporations, a hierarchy of internal credentials has overshadowed the PMP in terms of prominence. To be sure, the PMP remains important but is now just one more rung on the career ladder. 



7. More project management leaders will measure effectiveness based on business results. While introducing tools, using methodologies, mapping project management practices, sending project managers to training and increasing the number of PMPs in the organization are important metrics for project management leaders to achieve, they do not speak to effectiveness from a business perspective. To judge business effectiveness, project leaders need to determine if their work has had a positive, quantifiable effect on the business in terms troubled project reduction, lower project manager attrition and faster time to market. In 2012 the practice of measuring the outputs, not the inputs, of project management will gain traction.

8. Good project managers will buck unemployment trends. Even though unemployment is at record levels in many countries, good project managers are hard to find. Recruiting continues even in tough economies, and organizations need individuals who can perform the basics flawlessly.
The hunger for project management basics, in particular risk management, will continue to surge in 2012, especially in such countries as India and China, where project manager attrition rates are disturbingly high and continual training of new staff is critical.
 
9. Client-centric project management will outpace the “triple constraint.” For years, time, cost and scope were the metrics upon which the success of all projects and their managers were judged. While the triple constraints remain important, they are no longer the be-all, end-all for project success. While risk and quality have also been cited as additional “constraints,” the clear trend in 2012 is the value the project delivers to the organization.
The new definition of project success is that a project can exceed its time and cost estimates so long as the client determines that it is successful by whatever criteria they use. In today’s environment, project value is determined by the recipient—or client—not the provider.

10. HR professionals will seek assessments to identify high-potential project managers. Because project management is such an important function, human resources professionals in 2012 will be tasked more intensely with identifying high-potential project managers. The challenge HR professionals will face is that there is no silver-bullet assessment for identifying great project managers.
Existing knowledge and skills assessments are of little use since they are not designed for entry-level project manager positions. Nonetheless, candidates must be measured not only on their technical abilities but also on the all-important business and interpersonal skills.