The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reduced by 0.5% its previously reported number of new jobs from March 2023 to March 2024, according to a newly released update.

The revise, in the agency's Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, lowered the number of jobs by 818,000—45,000 of which were in the construction sector. The reduction is based on unemployment insurance tax records filed by states.

“The frustrating thing about this revision is that it says nothing about what has happened since March, so we don't know if the April to July numbers are still accurate,” says Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America chief economist. “If so, that suggests construction employment has actually strengthened in recent months relative to [the periods from] January 2023 to March 2024. But the downward revision might also imply that recent data has also overstated the construction employment gains.”

Anirban Basu, chief economist for Associated Builders and Contractors, says the revision is not a surprise to the Federal Reserve or the markets. “For months, ABC’s economic research team has been indicating growing economic fragility, and these revisions indicate that U.S. economic strength has been overstated, at least with respect to employment,” he says. “That said, this revision is backward-looking and does not affect unemployment rate data, and therefore will have little impact on policymaking going forward.”

Richard Branch, chief economist of Dodge Construction Network, shares a similar sentiment, adding that the report “all but cements that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting in September. The only question outstanding is whether it will be a quarter point or half point cut. Construction activity will accelerate as lower rates take hold, leading to stronger hiring over the next year.”

The final report will be issued in February 2025 along with the January 2025 employment situation announcement.