Labor Dept. Projects 10-Year Gain for Construction Employment

Forecast is more bullish than the one issued last year.

Graphic by ENR Art Dept.

Updated 9.3/2024: Construction employment is projected to climb by 380,100 jobs over the next decade and record a modest annual growth rate in that period, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says in a new forecast.

The bureau’s annual employment projections report, which it released on Aug. 29, says construction’s compound annual growth rate in the 2023-2033 period will be 0.5%. That compares with a rate of 0.1% for all industries.

The 0.5% figure also is more than triple the 0.1% construction rate that BLS projected in its report issued last year, said Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America chief economist, in comments first published in AGC’s Data DIGest weekly newsletter. Last year’s forecast applied to the 2022-2032 period.

The new report also has detailed breakdowns for construction job categories. BLS projects an employment increase of 238,900, or 6.3%, over the 2023-2033 span for construction trades workers.

“The new projections underscore the urgency of having government support for career and technical education and training programs that will prepare workers to fill these opportunities,” Simonson said in a statement.

Clean energy jobs fastest growing

Clean energy-related jobs are well-represented in the BLS report's list of the ten fastest-growing occupations. The No. 1 occupation is wind turbine service technician, a field projected to increase by 60.1% in 2023-2033. Ranking second is solar photovoltaic installers, with a projected gain of 48%.

That is in line with the data in a recent U.S. Dept. of Energy report on the robust outlook for energy-related construction jobs.

BLS attributes the upbeat projections to greater demand for electricity from more electric vehicles and data centers, but cautions that while "fast growing, the two occupations are projected to add fewer than 20,000 jobs combined."

Overall, BLS projects the U.S. economy will gain 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033.

The new BLS report also provides data by occupational groups, including construction and extraction. Zack Fritz, Associated Builders and Contractors economist, said via email the BLS report showed employment in construction and extraction employment is projected to rise by 5.6% from 2023 to 2033.

Fritz said that while that is faster than BLS's 4.0% projection for all occupations, it is "considerably slower than the 22% expansion in construction and extraction occupation jobs over the previous decade."

Fritz added, "Take this all with a grain of salt." He noted that the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook's main purpose is providing occupational information, frequently to high school students seeking careers.

He said, "Little weight should be put on the employment growth projections, especially over such a long duration."

(Story updated on 9/3/2024 with comments from ABC economist on construction/extraction occupation data.)

Tom Ichniowski has been writing about the federal government as ENR’s Washington Bureau Chief since the George H.W. Bush administration, and he has covered at least five major highway bills. A recognized expert on government policy on infrastructure and regulation, Tom is also a Baltimore native and Orioles fan who grew up rooting for Brooks and Frank Robinson. He is a graduate of Columbia College and Columbia’s graduate school of journalism, where he once used “unrelentless” in a headline.

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