Construction executives report a boost in industry confidence on ENR’s latest Construction Industry Confidence Index survey. The index rose to a 55 rating this quarter, up from 47 in Q3.

The confidence index measures executive sentiment about where the current market will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period, on a 0-100 scale. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on responses by U.S. executives of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms on ENR’s top lists to surveys sent between Oct. 28 and Dec. 2.

Survey respondents report significant optimism around the president-elect’s second term. Exactly half of this quarter’s survey filings were received before the election had been called, and half after. Confidence among executives who filed before the election came in at a 47 rating, compared to a 64 rating for those who filed afterwards.

Confidence in the economy overall rose significantly among both groupings, coming in at a 50 rating among pre-election filers and 65 for post-election. The economic index was at a 39 rating last quarter. In Q3, 40.5% of firms foresaw a declining economy 3-6 months in future, this quarter only 12.3% do.

After dropping to a 45 rating last quarter, confidence has rebounded among subcontractors to 59. Every filing subcontractor sees an either stable or improving market in 3-6 months. Confidence among design firms also rose, to 58 this quarter from 55 in Q3. GCs and CMs are more wary, coming in at a 51 rating.

All markets ENR tracks saw an increase in optimism, with the exception of the environmental market, although the market sample size is small. Confidence is highest in the power (an 81 rating), industrial/manufacturing (73) and hospitals/health care (71) markets. While also a small sample, it is notable that confidence in the petroleum market jumped 19 points to a 68 rating this quarter.

ENR’s results are mirrored by those of the Confindex survey from Princeton, N.J.-based Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA). Each quarter, CFMA polls CFOs from general and civil contractors and subcontractors on markets and business conditions. The resulting Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of 1 to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings indicate market growth.

All indices that the Confindex tracks rose in lock step with each other between Q3 and Q4, with each rising between 6.4% and 7.5%. The Overall Confindex is up to a 116 rating, with the “business conditions,” “financial conditions” and “current confidence” indices up to 117, 115 and 111, respectively. The “year ahead outlook” index is up to 122—its highest rating since Q2 of 2017.

Promise or Posture?

While comments on ENR’s survey are generally positive about the incoming Trump administration, they also express some wariness regarding some of its stated policy objectives. The president-elect has promised to significantly increase tariffs on the U.S.’s three largest trade partners—Canada, Mexico and China. He has also promised to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. It has been estimated that as many as 1.5 million of those immigrants work in construction.

“If I’m a contractor, I don’t like these tariffs. A lot of my materials, a lot of my equipment, is imported,” says Anirban Basu, CFMA advisor and CEO of Sage Policy Group. However, he thinks construction executives may be viewing Trump’s tariff promises as more posture than policy. “I don’t think they are taking Donald Trump literally, but they are taking him seriously. He’s going to use America’s massive purchasing power to press America’s advantage.” The promise of deregulation, particularly in the energy sector, is another positive.

Trump’s re-election has changed the forecast for expected interest rate cuts, however. Two months ago, the Federal Reserve was expected to cut rates six times in 2025, Basu notes. “Presently, the bond market is pricing in approximately two rate cuts for next year, with a growing number of economists indicating that there may be no rate cuts in 2025,” he says.

The 800-lb gorilla in the room is what will happen with the new administration’s immigration policy. “If I’m a contractor, my number one challenge in recent years has been my workforce. And [undocumented immigrants] are a source of young, motivated workers who, frankly, work for less than they’re probably contributing to my firm,” says Basu.

While there are logistical and cost barriers that will limit the scope of the deportations, the President-Elect could penalize firms that utilize undocumented migrants more severely than he did during his first term, the Sage CEO suggests. Again, however, Basu thinks construction firms may see the threat of deportations as posturing. “During his first term enforcement against employers using undocumented migrants was actually quite light—a lot of talk, but enforcement light,” he says.