A new study has produced the first map of coastal communities and infrastructure across the Arctic Circle, which shows that both will continue to face profound challenges in the coming decades as a result of climate change.
The study, published Dec. 16 in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future journal, used data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 1 and 2 satellites in combination with sea-level rise projections to create the map, which includes the typically small communities north of 66.33°N latitude, as well as the infrastructure in those settlements.
Permafrost coasts in the Arctic are among the most quickly eroding on the planet, with some of them experiencing up to 67 ft of erosion annually. But rising seas and more extreme weather are likely to exacerbate an already significant problem, according to authors of the study, led by a team from Austrian firm b.geos.
The study concluded that by 2100, 45% of 318 Arctic coastal settlements will be affected by sea level rise and 31% will be impacted by coastal erosion—with 77% of local infrastructure on ground that potentially will no longer be frozen solid but crumbling and subsiding.
The new map shows that erosion is already occurring, with coastlines near settlements retreating an average of 10 ft annually. However, in some areas the coastal retreat is much worse—as much as 67 ft per year. By 2030, more roads and buildings will be affected, study authors said.
“To minimize the risks and costs faced by coastal permafrost settlements, rapid adoption of coastline management and adaptation measures is essential to protect infrastructure and the livelihoods of local populations,” they concluded.
Traditional economies based on hunting and fishing comprise the majority of Arctic settlements, but mining facilities and operations, military installations, tourist attractions and research stations are also present, said Anett Bartsch, founder of b.geos and lead author. “A lot of this infrastructure serves people living farther south” rather than those living nearby, she said in a statement.
A separate analysis by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its annual Arctic Report Card released Dec. 10, found that the Arctic tundra—land on top of permafrost—has for the first time shifted from storing carbon emissions to becoming a source of carbon dioxide, as a result of warming temperatures and more wildfires.
Circumpolar wildfire emissions have averaged 207 million tons annually since 2003. Agency administrator Rick Spinrad said the combination of increased wildfire activity and higher levels of carbon emissions will worsen climate impacts.
