Non-residential spending is expected to rise more than 7% in 2024, with an additional 2% increase next year, per the American Institute of Architects' mid-year consensus construction forecast.

The report, put together by a panel of construction forecasters, points to problems with construction lending as well as a decline in commercial property value among the reasons for the low projection in 2025.

Activity across the construction sectors continues to vary greatly. Manufacturing construction is expected to see the highest increase this year, at roughly 14%, with institutional construction up more than 10%. On the lower end, commercial construction is expected to show no change both this year and next.

“The disparity in sector performance highlights the uneven economic conditions and ongoing market uncertainties,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker in a press release. “Despite the challenges, specific sectors like manufacturing construction are showing strong ongoing activity from the surge in projects that started during the pandemic, while most institutional sectors are seeing reasonably healthy gains, fueled by the education market.”